MDL Disneyland Paris Major Prediction: Team Secret vs Evil Geniuses

If you’ve been watching the MDL Disneyland Paris Major 2019 so far, one thing that you’ve probably concluded for yourself is that Team Secret are pretty good at Dota 2.

Then again, it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to come to that conclusion, especially when results speak for themselves as well. For the 2018-19 Dota Pro Circuit, Team Secret have won a Major, made it to the Grand Final of another one, and won a couple of other non-DPC tournaments as well. They also currently hold the highest win rate of any other five-man lineup in LAN tournaments in Dota 2 and have generally won every game they’ve played.

In fact, heading into the Upper Bracket Finals, Team Secret are riding a seven-game win streak. The last time that they lost was to Virtus.Pro at the CORSAIR DreamLeague Season 10 Major two months ago. In total, the only teams to have beaten the current lineup of Team Secret in a LAN setting are Virtus.Pro, Vici Gaming, and PSG.LGD.

Of those three, two have gone on to win a Major. Meanwhile, PSG.LGD are widely considered the best Dota 2 team in China and placed 2nd at TI8 last August with their current lineup.

So, to say that Evil Geniuses are facing tall odds up against Team Secret is no exaggeration. Yes, Evil Geniuses are good. Yes, they’ve improved. Yes, they’re no longer just drafting comfort heroes for themselves. But, while that kind of improvement may be good enough for other Dota 2 teams, they’ll have to do even better to have even a remote chance at beating Team Secret.

Betting Prediction for Team Secret vs Evil Geniuses

We’ve already established just how dominant Team Secret have been this season. But, to further prove that point, if you take a look at all the LAN games (best-of-three or more) that Team Secret have played this 2019 alone, you’d see that they’ve only dropped a game just five times. That means, of the 24 best-of-three (or more) series’ that they’ve played this year, Team Secret have won 19 of them via sweep — good for a 79% “sweep rate” — and they’ve never lost to a sweep as well.

Additionally, Evil Geniuses have yet to take a single map off of Team Secret this season, albeit the sample size is rather small (Team Secret and Evil Geniuses have only met twice in a best-of-three this season).

All in all, things aren’t looking good for Team Secret, who are a 3.02 odds underdogs (bet $100 to win $302) to win against Team Secret.

Even in their win against Ninjas in Pyjamas, Evil Geniuses looked shaky at times. You could even go as far as to say that the loss was more on Ninjas in Pyjamas’ failure to execute their gameplan than more on Evil Geniuses just outplaying or out drafting their opponents throughout the series.

On the opposite side, Team Secret are looking like an unsolvable puzzle of a team. They dismantled OG and only lost to PSG.LGD because Ludwig “zai” Wåhlberg was a non-factor on his offlane Pudge (he went 0-13), a pick that’s very rarely if at all seen in pro games. They’re experimenting with picks and pushing the meta to its absolute limit in a copycat league and are winning more than anyone else.

No team has successfully figured out how to beat Team Secret this season, and we don’t expect that to happen anytime soon.

Given Team Secret’s body of work so far, and Evil Geniuses’ inconsistency against teams who are just as good if not better than they are, we’d have to give this series to Team Secret.

Betting tip: Evil Geniuses to Win at Least 1 Map (No)
Odds: 2.08
Bookmaker: ArcaneBet
Date: May 11, 5:00 PM CEST

See more odds @ Arcanebet